The next year’s general election is just difficult to analyze. It is becoming complicated day by day. The most interesting part is the Western voting bloc.
In the previous elections, they have voted for Raila Odinga overwhelmingly. Today, they are not yet decided whom they will vote for. However, with the nonconforming voices, it is unlikely that they will vote for Raila Odinga. Some percentage of votes from the counties that have shown existence of rebels to ODM can be swayed to vote for a different candidate. The rebellion of Mudavadi in Vihiga is also viewed as a possible contribution to the Odinga’s loss.
The equation for western province is becoming complicated as the Bungoma senator Moses Wetang’ula is said to be working with Jubilee. Ababu Namwamba has also been quoted saying they are having talks with Wetang’ula to ditch the CORD alliance.
The uproar caused by the leaders is not to be ignored. They might surprise the other politicians. And when they do what we do not expect, they will have finished Raila Odinga.
One thing that can happen is the unity of all the Western leaders. With Ababu, Otuoma, Wetang’ula and Mudavadi, they can form a serious force. In doing that they can accept the humble pie and bring in Kalonzo to the equation. As a presidential candidate, Kalonzo can appoint Mudavadi as a running mate. That is a heavy force, isn’t it?
In Coast province, Kalonzo will have a great support because of the strength of Wiper Party thereof. The last option will be to have a leader of majority and a speaker. It is at this point that Moi Gideon will come up together with Isaac Ruto. Hassan Omar will do well to be a speaker. Such a move is a dangerous one for the political future of Raila Odinga. If implemented, the leaders will just surprise the nation at the strength of their unions. To Ababu and Otuoma it will build them to be stronger men.
This is just a suggestion on what they would do to make themselves great next year.