Coalition for reforms and democracy, CORD, has been united since last election. Jubilee appears more than united (for fear of being partisan). In several political unions, the leaders have always fallen apart because of disagreements. That is the bad history of Kenya leaders.
The CORD coalition got into a similar test when Moses Wetang’ula launched his presidential goals is Kakamega. Raila was absent but Kalonzo joined him. Rumors and political analysis claimed it was an indication of a break up. They have not broken.
The next general election is a difficult one for Raila. It is assumed, said and believed that he has the last bullet. How to use it is a complicated thing. They say he who has a single arrow shoots not with an offhand aim. The Jubilee alliance under President Uhuru is well prepared to win a second election.
The CORD flag bearer to the next election is not yet decided. There are higher chance Raila will win the context. He has even dismissed the agreement they signed then. For the other candidates, they have to support him or break from him. There lies the foremost problem for the merger. The other candidates might just vie to fulfill their top-level ambitions.
The Kenyan media has reminded us of the togetherness of alliances from the commitment of the parties involved. In the recent past, Hon Kalonzo and Wetang’ula has been distant from Raila during these stormy days that ODM is facing. None of them is involved in housekeeping issues of one of their parties. This could be a pointer to an exit strategy which might expose Raila to an early defeat.
For the two candidates, it had been hinted that they are working loosely with the jubilee alliance. These can be disputed. First, Jubilee is determined to win Alfred Mutua instead of Kalonzo Musyoka. They have won Ababu Namwamba and will work with him instead of Wetang’ula. Should the two exit the coalition, then it will be another complex equation.