Ababu Namwamba has made a decision to move out of the Orange House. The impact of his decisions may not be witnessed immediately. In either way, be it positive or negative to him, it will have an impact.
For a long time, Namwamba has been an advocate of democracy while in ODM. He is a soldier whom you would admire his presence in the party and political rallies. He ascertained that the Orange Party was too huge a house to bring down.
The decision he made the other day was his. And the political dynamics are awaiting. It is said that after churning the milk, let it settle. Thereafter, separating ghee would be easier. In ODM, the milk has been churned and it is currently settling. Everything is now sinking in the minds of other political leaders before the ballot does its work.
I have observed the political moves of previous leaders who held important positions in parties. Only a few went against the waves of their tribesmen. In resignations like Ababu’s, it works well when it is done by the tribal chief. The others would easily follow, and win in elections.
For the Budalangi legislator, he has left the party prematurely. That I can bet. In western province, the party is still strong and will sail easily in the next election if everything remains as they are. Currently, the presence of Wetangula and Oparanya in the cord makes ODM and affiliates strong. News has gone round that Labor Party of Kenya is the likely outfit that he will use.
In his constituency, Ababu Namwamba represents a group of mixed people. That makes the voting compromised. If he would go for the gubernatorial race, he will face the most skewed voters. These voters cannot go beyond their tribe, given our nature of voting.
The presidential race in the next year’s general election looks easy. However, Raila has one last bullet. He must do his best to win the election. Kenyatta is a president and ousting him is a nightmare. That makes is a two horse race once more. The horses are the same and riders the same.
For such a race any dissenting voices faces a snare of political operations. The two presidential aspirants will sweep clean the areas that are deemed to be their backyard. That is the first instance in which Ababu is trapped. And it is also the last. It is highly unlikely that Ababu will not make it to the next parliament. If he finds a stronger party than ODM, in the next year’s election, then he will have built his name. And that will be a thorn in the flesh of his scoffers.